MEMO: Energy costs — driven by gas, utilities, and data centers — are a defining issue of the midterm elections, and Democrats are going on offense to win

To: Interested Parties

From: Alex Glass, Climate Power Communications Director

Date: September 9, 2026

Subject: Energy costs — driven by gas, utilities, and data centers — are a defining issue of the midterm elections, and Democrats are going on offense to win 

With 55 days to go, energy costs have become the clearest expression of the affordability crisis on the ballot this November. As Bloomberg News posited in April: energy bills may swing the midterms because “the cost of electricity is to the 2026 election what the price of eggs was to the 2024 races.” Now, with the highest post-Labor Day gas prices in history, it’s more than just electricity costs driving voter turnout. In races across the country, energy prices— utility bills, the skyrocketing cost of gas, and uncertainty stoked by data centers— are driving voter anger, and Trump and his rubber-stamp Republicans will reap the consequences on election day. 

Trump promised to cut energy costs in half. Instead, he and congressional Republicans — who passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — gutted clean energy investment and tilted the playing field toward expensive oil and gas, just as demand is exploding. Clean energy is the cheapest, fastest way to get more power onto the grid; instead, thanks to Republicans, over 400 clean energy projects have been canceled, delayed or hit by layoffs, enough lost generation to power nearly 22 million homes. The result is utility bills up 15% nationally as of August, having spiked as much as 18% over the past year.

At the same time, Trump and Republicans keep telling Americans relief is right around the corner. But oil is back around $95 a barrel, and gasoline stayed north of $4 a gallon over Labor Day weekend, the highest on record, with diesel also hitting record highs.

Trump isn’t just presiding over this — he’s cashing in on it. A new Joint Economic Committee report found the president’s own oil and gas stock holdings have gained as much as $15.5 million this year as prices climbed, with Exxon and Chevron among his largest holdings. 

Now there’s a third energy fight on voters’ minds: data centers. Trump and Republican leaders are siccing the DOJ on states to challenge their attempts at regulation, running interference for Musk’s xAI in a pollution lawsuit, and telling the country to just “Let Data Reign” — basically putting data centers above the law while ratepayers and local air and water suffer. Democrats have a simpler, more popular pitch: tech companies should pay their own way, new data centers should run on new clean power instead of fouling the air and water, and communities should get a say before any deals get cut behind closed doors. (More in Climate Power’s recent memo on data centers.)

Gas prices, utility bills, and data centers are converging into one story voters already understand: Trump and congressional Republicans broke their promise of cheaper energy, and now American families and businesses are footing the bill while the GOP’s billionaire donors cash in. Democratic candidates everywhere are going on offense over it, just as they did in 2025 — a record Republicans can’t run from, and the reason Democrats are positioned to keep winning on this in November.

The Receipts Are In: Voters Are Feeling the Squeeze

In battleground states, 86% of voters say their utility bills are going up, and energy costs are now tied with housing as the second-biggest financial concern facing families – in Pennsylvania, they have risen to be the #1 pain point. Climate Power polling with Hart Research found that since January, the share of voters seriously concerned about gas prices has more than doubled, while concern about electricity costs is up 10 points. 58% of voters say congressional Republicans are making energy prices worse, compared to just 20% who say better — a reversal from December 2024, when 42% said Republicans were making prices better and 35% said worse.

New ad test results also verify that messaging around energy costs moves voters by 7 percentage points in Democrats’ direction in some of the toughest 2026 races.

The Trump-GOP agenda has cost the average family at least $2,000 over the past year — $285 more at the pump because of the Iran war, $213 more on utility bills, and the rest in tariff-inflated grocery and goods prices. 

Data centers are compounding the costs and anxiety. Recent polling from Climate Power and Blue Rose Research found utility costs and power outages are voters’ top data center concerns, and that how these centers are powered matters enormously: voters support data centers powered by clean energy by a 25-point margin, and oppose those powered by fossil fuels by 16 points.

In the States: Democrats Are Running On Energy Costs — And Winning

In Arizona’s 6th, JoAnna Mendoza is running on an affordability agenda that credits clean energy with more than $13 billion in investment and 13,000-plus jobs for the state — a contrast with Rep. Juan Ciscomani, who voted for the Republican budget bill after claiming he wanted to protect clean energy tax credits all while staying silent on a proposed $5 billion data center in his own district.

Iowa is its own case study in miniature. In the 1st District, Christina Bohannan has leaned into cheaper, clean energy — the source of two-thirds of the state’s electricity — while her opponent, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, voted to gut clean energy despite claiming she would protect clean energy tax credits. Since Trump took office, electricity prices have spiked by 33% in Iowa. And in the governor’s race, Rob Sand has released an affordability plan that includes promoting “affordable renewables”, while GOP opponent Zach Lahn proposed new taxes on wind and solar projects that benefit Iowa ratepayers.

Michigan features some of the country’s highest-profile races, and energy affordability and data centers are driving the conversation. In the open Senate race, Mike Rogers is backed by Elon Musk’s PAC spending and is vowing to “protect” him even while he builds dirty data centers – while Abdul El-Sayed has made fighting monopoly utilities to lower energy costs a centerpiece of his campaign. In Michigan’s 4th, the Trump administration’s forced extension of dirty, more expensive coal plants impacts affordability in the race between Sean McCann and longtime Rep. Bill Huizenga. And in Michigan’s 7th district, Will Lawrence got out ahead of the field standing with local communities against data centers, while incumbent Tom Barrett voted to speed up data center development and block regulation – betraying his recent claims to support “local control.” 

In Ohio’s Senate race, Sherrod Brown has made skyrocketing energy costs a cornerstone of his campaign, running ads tying his opponent Jon Husted directly to rising utility bills in Ohio. It’s a natural line of attack: Husted allegedly has ties to the bribery scandal behind FirstEnergy’s billion-dollar bailout, which has cost Ohio households $663 more a year on electricity.

In Wisconsin’s 3rd, Rebecca Cooke has criticized Rep. Derrick Van Orden for voting for Trump’s budget bill while energy prices grow “out of control” in Western Wisconsin. Given CD-3’s large agricultural community, Cooke has repeatedly attacked Van Orden’s support for Trump’s war of choice as Wisconsin has set record highs for diesel prices this past spring and summer, reaching up to $5.87 a gallon during the planting season. 

The Bottom Line

Republicans blocked the path to cheaper, faster, more reliable energy, and now families and businesses are paying for it three times over — at the pump, on their utility bills, and increasingly in the impacts Big Tech’s data centers are having on the grid and the air we breathe. Democrats have a clear, credible answer on all three, and they’re not waiting until November to make the case. From now through Election Day, every rising number on a gas station sign or a utility bill is a reminder of who broke the deal — and who’s fighting to fix it.