Hurricane Disinformation Test Results

To: Interested Parties
From: Lori Lodes, Executive Director, Climate Power
Date: Friday, October 18, 2024
RE: Hurricane Disinformation Test Results

Following the dramatic surge in disinformation around Hurricanes Helene and Milton, Climate Power collected and conducted a test with OpenLabs, which ran from October 10-15, to determine how harmful this disinformation is in terms of its effect on voters’ perceptions of Vice President Kamala Harris. Importantly, this research was conducted in areas not directly affected by the hurricanes: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. We also conducted a poll with Data for Progress, fielded Oct 11-16 both nationally and in the battleground states, to determine the best messages for mitigating the impact of disinformation. 

As disinformation researchers will know, disinformation is most harmful when it reinforces existing beliefs. We are concerned that letting these hurricane disinformation narratives go unanswered further cements some voters’ perception that they don’t trust Vice President Harris and don’t believe she has accomplished much. While hurricane disinformation is subsiding in volume across social media, research from Doppler as recently as October 16 suggests that these narratives remain among the most harmful negative messages of the entire cycle in terms of vote choice. And with Donald Trump planning to visit Asheville, NC on Monday, we expect his lies will continue to attract attention. 

Our findings suggest:

• Voters are nearly universally aware of disinformation about the Biden-Harris administration’s response to the hurricanes—especially in states where voters cannot see the strong government recovery efforts at work.
• These narratives play into concerns certain voters—particularly Republican- leaning Independents, soft Republicans, and men—already hold about Vice President Harris. 
• The best way to counter the most harmful disinformation is to connect its spread to Trump, showing how his propagation of lies impedes recovery efforts, harms Americans, and serves as a precursor of what’s to come if he is elected—including his Big Oil-funded Project 2025 agenda. We need to contrast this with the positive results Vice President Harris is delivering for everyday Americans through the administration’s recovery efforts.

We tested the effects of countering the two most harmful clips as tested by Doppler—96th percentile and 99th percentile, respectively—with five different truthful/positive video clips. On average, the clips mitigated the negative effect of the harmful clips on Harris/Trump Vote Choice from -1.5pp to -.07pp, and the most effective clip reduced the negative effect of the two clips to just -0.3pp. 

According to our recent polling, the most effective message among Latino voters, Black voters, and younger voters (under 45) is to call out how Trump’s “dangerous disinformation” about extreme weather impedes recovery efforts and harms Americans.

For Independents, Republican-leaning voters, and men, it’s equally effective to highlight this disinformation campaign as a precursor of what’s to come, if Trump is elected—his Big Oil-funded Project 2025 agenda with dangerous consequences for weather alerts, FEMA, and disaster relief, and the fact that he is willing to do anything for his own political convenience.

For no audience is a message rooted solely in vulnerability and safety enough. In order to address voters’ concerns that Vice President Harris is not doing enough, we must also highlight the Biden-Harris administration’s recovery efforts and show voters that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading a historic response to get funds and support to families impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. In our poll, voters are essentially split in their approval of disaster relief efforts (49% approve/46% disapprove). Similarly, when it comes to “handling extreme weather events,” the Harris-Trump trust gap is too narrow: Harris is only +5pp nationally, and tied at 48-48 across the battleground states. This needs attention since, as a recent Flight Radar report suggests, “effects on Harris’ image are much more correlated with vote choice effects than are effects on Trump’ favorability.”

For further resources on assessing and addressing the post-hurricane disinformation landscape, please see our earlier memo here.

APPENDIX: BEST-TESTING MESSAGES

Top-performing Messages

[PROJECT 2025] Funded by Big Oil money, Trump’s Project 2025 agenda could become law if he is elected and could force Americans to pay for life-saving weather alerts, dismantle the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and privatize disaster relief, making recovery harder.

• Notes: Works slightly better with Republican-leaning voters—including soft Republicans, Independents, conservatives, and men.

[DANGEROUS DISINFORMATION] Trump spreads dangerous disinformation about extreme weather events and climate change. When he spreads these lies, he puts Americans’ safety at risk, making recovery efforts more difficult by confusing people and making them less likely to seek or receive the aid they need.

• Notes: Works better with young voters, Black voters, and Latino voters.

 1 OpenLabs (fielded Oct 10-15), 21,467 U.S likely voters in AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI.
2  Data for Progress (fielded Oct 11-16). 1,442 U.S. likely voters nationally, plus 573 additional interviews via oversample in battleground states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, WI).
3  Doppler, October 9, 2024.
4  Ibid. Data for Progress (fielded Oct 11-16).
5  Flight Radar, Thursday, October 17, 2024.