To: Interested Parties
From: Andrew Baumann and Maura Farrell, Global Strategy Group
Date: July 16, 2020
Re: New Research Shows that Democrats Should Go on Offense on Climate in 2020

Global Strategy Group partnered with Climate Power 2020 and Data for Progress to conduct in-depth research exploring how climate can impact the 2020 election up and down the ballot – and how Democrats can best use it to their advantage. The research shows that climate is a winning issue for Democrats and can help them expand their margins among key groups of voters who are not yet fully translating dissatisfaction with Trump into votes for Democrats: center-right voters, younger voters, and Latinx voters – particularly women.

This new research shows that these key groups, and voters more generally, overwhelmingly support bold action on climate. More importantly, the research shows that Democrats can effectively rebut dishonest attacks from Donald Trump and other Republicans around the Green New Deal. Not only can Democrats credibly challenge these attacks, Democrats can also use voters’ inherent skepticism about the GOP’s claims to take the attack to Republicans and effectively paint Trump and the GOP as corrupt and selfish liars who are putting the future of our children at risk – and move votes at both the presidential and Congressional level.

The following memo is based on an online survey conducted June 23-July 1 among 1,031 registered voters nationwide, plus additional oversamples to achieve 3,249 interviews, including 1,575 voters in battleground states, 2,070 middle partisan voters, 1,073 voters ages 18-34, and 660 Latinx voters.

Key Findings:

This creates openings for Democrats to push back against these ridiculous claims, which generate real backlash from voters. When voters were asked to describe Trump and Republicans in three words after hearing a series of counterattacks, the dominant response was “liars,” followed closely by “greedy,” “selfish,” and “corrupt”:

After messaging from both sides, Democrats gain with both key swing and base groups – and move key metrics in their favor. As the table below shows, following strong messaging attacks from Trump and Republicans and a set of counterattacks from Democrats, Democrats gain among middle partisans, younger voters and Latinx voters at both the presidential and Congressional level.

Moreover, this balanced exchange of messaging results in Democrats significantly expanding their advantage – when matched against Trump – on key metrics like leaving a better world for future generations and standing up to corporate special interests.

Read the full report here.