FACT SHEET: Trump’s War in Iran Will Drive Up Gas Prices For Months After The Conflict Ends
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Trump and Republicans claim that gas prices will be back to normal in days, but experts agree it will take months for prices at the pump to return to pre-war levels even if the conflict ends
Gas prices have risen by more than a dollar since Trump attacked Iran
Washington, DC – Republicans are rushing to reassure their constituents that gas prices will rapidly fall once Trump’s war in Iran is over, but analysts have warned that prices won’t return to their pre-war levels for months, with the impact possibly lasting through 2027. Americans who were already reeling from rising costs, including soaring utility bills thanks to Trump’s war on clean energy, will now pay the price for the global energy crisis that Trump kickstarted, while his Big Oil donors profit.
EVEN IF THE WAR IN IRAN ENDS, IT WILL TAKE MONTHS FOR GAS PRICES TO RETURN TO PRE-WAR LEVELS
- Even if the U.S. ends its operations in Iran, gas prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels for months.
- Researchers at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research said that even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens and crude prices normalize, consumers will likely pay higher gas prices for weeks or months longer.
- Energy analysts also warned that the supply chain shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure, as well as damage to oil and gas facilities in the Middle East, could affect energy prices through 2027.
- In its April Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasted that global oil prices would average $96 per barrel in 2026 and would not fall below $90 until the fourth quarter, assuming the conflict ends in April.
GAS PRICES SKYROCKET AS OIL PRICES RISE, BUT FALL AT A SLOWER RATE
- As oil prices rise, gas prices rise with them; when oil prices fall, gasoline prices tend to fall more slowly.
- Economists have found that pump prices respond more than twice as quickly to increases in crude oil prices as to decreases.
- When gas prices spiked after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and after Hurricane Katrina, it took months for prices to fall.