MEMO: Mobilizing Young Voters on Climate and Clean Energy Can Win the Election

As we enter the final sprint of a high-stakes presidential race, three things are true: 

1. This is a tight contest that will be won or lost on the ground in seven battleground states; 
2. Polling shows that persuading and turning out young people could win the race; and 
3. Those same polls consistently show that climate and clean energy are motivating issues for these young voters, particularly Black and Latino voters and suburban women.

That’s why Climate Power is leading a comprehensive effort to engage, inform, register, persuade and mobilize young voters across those key demographics. This memo details how climate and clean energy messaging can win over and turn out young Black, Latino, and women voters in battleground states—voters who will be critical to the outcome of the 2024 election.

Young voters are positioned to determine the outcome of the election, and Vice President Kamala Harris needs to further consolidate and mobilize them to win.

• While youth turnout has historically been low, a record 50% of young voters turned out in 2020, and they proved determinative, netting Biden more votes than the total margin of victory in four key battleground states he flipped.

• Vice President Harris is driving a swell of enthusiasm and support among young voters in swing states, with 43% saying her nomination makes them more likely to vote –– a trend reflected by the recent surge in youth voter registration.

• However, Cook Political Report data indicates that despite Harris’ growing lead with young voters (+15pp), she is still underperforming the Democrats’ 2020 youth margin. Additionally, CNN’s September poll shows a 9-point deficit nationally compared to the Democrats’ 2020 youth margin.

• Similarly, while Harvard Youth Poll’s September study shows promising gains for Harris among young voters nationally, the majority of this gain is driven by gains within the 18-24 cohort –– Harris still needs to fill the gap in the battleground states among 25-34 year olds.  

• A notable part of this underperformance is among young Black and Latino voters—again, especially among young voters of color ages 25-34. 
  • Among young Black voters, Harris has underperformed by double-digits in polls compared to older Black voters and young Biden 2020 Black voters. 
  • Among young Latino voters, while the enthusiasm gap has narrowed, there is still a 4 to 6-point gap nationally between current Harris support and the Biden 2020 vote. With razor-thin margins, these gaps in the battleground states can tip the election, particularly as Latinos’ share of the voting-age population continues to soar in these states.

Young voters are disproportionately motivated by climate and clean energy action.

• In a recent Quinnipiac Poll, 82% of young voters (18-34) say climate change is important to their vote (57% say very or extremely important) –– and young voters trust Harris over Trump on climate by a staggering 50-point margin (72% to 22%).

• A late-September poll conducted by Hart Research shows a dead heat across battleground states between Harris and Trump (47-47 multi-candidate ballot; 49-49 two-way). After hearing more about Harris’ climate and clean energy vision, plans and record  –– and contrast with Trump’s –– voters move to Harris, giving her +4 points in vote share (49-45 in multi-candidate ballot) in the battleground states.
  • Not surprisingly, the greatest movement is among young voters, particularly ages 25-34 (+10 percentage points) and young voters of color (+11).

• 63% of young Black voters (18-34) in battleground states say that climate is either a top issue or a major priority to their vote in the upcoming presidential election. After learning more about Harris’ climate and clean energy vision, young Black voters in the battleground states move +5pp toward Harris and 1 in 3 feel more motivated to vote for her—and Black swing voters move by +9pp toward Harris.

• A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that among Latino voters, Harris has a 23-point lead over Trump, bigger than any other top issue in this poll. 
  • 81% of young Latino voters (under 45) are concerned about climate change, and 74% say they are concerned about Trump’s dangerous and costly climate denialism. 
  • By a 32-point margin, the majority of young Latino voters (under 45) have more trust in Harris (55%) over Trump (23%) on investing in clean energy manufacturing.

Climate Power is working to educate, engage, and mobilize young voters.

• Last month, in partnership with leading climate organizations and Future Forward (FF PAC), Climate Power Action announced a $55 million advertising campaign supporting Kamala Harris in battleground states.
  • The effort includes new ads designed specifically to engage young voters on climate change. Watch “Future Worth Fighting For” and “Let’s Be Real”.

• Climate Power separately announced a $3 million education campaign focused on young Americans, including a new ad highlighting the success of the American Climate Corps, a Biden-Harris program designed to prepare young people for good-paying, high-quality jobs in the clean energy and climate resilience economy.

• Climate Power recently launched “Too Hot Not To Vote” –– a new effort to engage, educate and mobilize climate voters –– co-chaired by 12 celebrities and activists with roughly 50 million combined social media followers. At TooHotNotToVote.com, and on its Spanish language counterpart, voters can check their registration status, make a plan to vote and contrast candidates’ climate records.
  • Through digital videos, celebrity and grassroots engagement, a content creators program, and earned media, Climate Power and Climate Power en Acción will engage young women under 40, including moms and women of color, across key states.
    • VIDEO: Bill Nye Video Encourages People to “Do Something” and Vote for Climate Action
    • Hollywood Reporter: Rosario Dawson, Bill Nye and Sophia Bush Team on Climate Power’s “Too Hot Not to Vote” Campaign
    • Duke Chronicle: Bill Nye ‘the Science Guy’ visits Durham to promote Harris-Walz campaign’s climate platform
    • Bill Nye on CNN: It’s Too Hot Not To Vote

• Climate Power’s latest actions build on the group’s sweeping youth research and engagement efforts –– including multiple surveys of young voters across swing states and focus groups with content creators to inform best practices.

CONCLUSION

The stakes of this election couldn’t be higher. The data leaves little doubt that the race will come down to the wire, with young voters uniquely positioned to decide the outcome. Climate and clean energy are winning messages for the Harris campaign and can help drive turnout across all demographics within this all-important bloc, particularly among young Black, Latino, and women voters.

Climate Power will leave no stone unturned to support that effort, which demands an all-hands-on-deck approach from the campaign, outside organizations, and grassroots supporters.