MEMO: WHY 2020 IS THE FIRST CLIMATE ELECTION

TO:         Interested Parties      
FROM:  John Podesta and Lori Lodes, Climate Power 2020
DATE:   November 3, 2020
RE:         Why 2020 is the First Climate Election

Today, all across the country, voters will turn out to the polls and decide the future of our country. There is no doubt: Climate is on the ballot.

Vice President Joe Biden put forward the “most aggressive” climate plan in history and made bold climate action a key pillar of his stump speech on the campaign trail — even making it a central part of his closing argument to voters. Pro-climate candidates up and down the ballot, in red, purple, and blue states, did the same. In the closing days of the campaign, climate was featured on front pages of newspapers across the country and Trump focused his closing argument on attacking Biden’s climate plan. Even with Trump’s constant lies, a growing majority of voters are demanding the government do more about climate change, with 65 percent agreeing that comprehensive climate legislation should be a priority for the next Congress and the president.

The politics of climate have changed. Pro-climate action candidates ran on — and will win on — their support for bold climate action.

Voters are demanding bold, immediate climate action and there will be a mandate for the Biden administration and Congress to take action on day one. In the final Economist/YouGov poll of the cycle in late-October, climate change was the number three issue among all voters and the number two issue for Democrats and young voters age 18-29. Morning Consult/Politico found in their October poll that 69 percent of registered voters support transitioning from fossil fuels to renewables. And, according to the New York Times/Siena College poll in October, 66 percent of voters support Biden’s $2 trillion climate plan, compared to only 26 percent that oppose it.

Here are five reasons why we know this election is a turning point for the politics of climate and why climate is on the ballot:

1. Biden campaigned on and will win on bold climate action. Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Kamala Harris campaigned aggressively on their plan for bold climate action, arguing that the climate crisis is one of the four historic crises facing our nation, and even making climate and environmental justice a central part of their closing argument in the final days of the election.

• The Biden campaign ran 8 climate ads; 3 exclusively on climate: The Biden campaign ran 8 ads highlighting climate action, including an ad featuring cherry farmers in deep red upstate Michigan and two ads in the final week focused exclusively on climate.
• Closing argument centered on climate change: During the final days of the campaign, Biden and Harris made climate and environmental justice central to their closing argument, including on the campaign trail in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida. Trump and his team also spent the final 10 days of the campaign crisscrossing around the country lying to voters and attacking Biden’s clean energy plan. Trump even signed an executive order to “protect Pennsylvania fracking” just days before the election and attacked Lady Gaga for being an “anti-fracking activist.”
• The most aggressive climate plan ever: Vice President Biden was widely credited for “pushing by far the most aggressive plan to address climate change in U.S. presidential history.”
• Strongest climate speech in a presidential election: In one of this year’s most notable moments for climate, Vice President Biden delivered one of the “best climate speeches ever” responding to this year’s record-breaking wildfires, proclaiming, “If you give a climate arsonist four more years in the White House, why would anyone be surprised if we have more America blaze? If we give a climate denier four more years in the White House, why would anyone be surprised when more of America is underwater?”
• Dozens of national and state news endorsements on climate: More than 50 national and state endorsements to date from major national and state editorial boards show climate change has emerged this year as an often cited reason media outlets opted to endorse in the 2020 presidential election. 

2. Climate was a defining issue of the presidential election. There was no issue with a stark of a contrast between the two parties as climate change. 

• Climate starred at the Democratic Convention: This year’s Democratic Convention broke a record with more than 30 minutes spent talking about how best to address climate change and the urgent need for action. There was only one mention at the Republican convention, despite a catastrophic hurricane making its way toward Texas and Louisiana at the same time.
• Climate made history at the debates: Chris Wallace of Fox News broke a 20-year streak of moderators failing to ask presidential candidates about climate change. For the final debate, and for the first time in history, climate was an announced topic at a presidential debate. The presidential and vice-presidential debates featured a historic 32 minutes on climate, showcasing two different visions: an equitable, clean energy future or one of climate denial and more bailouts for oil and gas.
• Trump is gambling on a losing anti-climate strategy: A major component of Trump’s argument on the stump was lying about Joe Biden’s clean energy plans — lying and attacking Biden’s plan 965 times in 2020. As much as Trump’s closing argument focused on anything in the final days of his campaign, it was on one message, as he tweeted late on Nov 2: “Biden has vowed to ABOLISH the American oil and natural gas industries, and BAN fracking.” As Climate Power and PPP’s Pennsylvania poll from Oct 29 found 55% said the next president should prioritize climate change and transitioning to clean energy policy has an 11-point advantage in the commonwealth.
• COVID-19 exposed Trump’s extreme science denial: The devastation of the global pandemic and the administration’s failed response exposed Trump’s science denial and elevated the similarities with his denial on climate change. Listening to scientists became a key campaign issue as Trump bashed Dr. Fauci and Vice President Biden urged the public that he would listen to the scientists and experts.
• 2020’s biggest climate moment elevated Trump’s denial to the front pages: As fires ravaged the West, President Trump refused to even acknowledge the devastation. After weeks of staying silent, Trump was forced to travel to California to meet with state officials about the fires. While Biden delivered his strongest climate speech ever that day, Trump doubled down on his science denial, saying “the science doesn’t know.” His denial with the backdrop of the state’s orange skies and in contrast with Biden’s speech made front-page news across the country.

3. Climate played an outsized role in elections up and down the ballot. Climate change dominated the airwaves and state-wide debates in some of the most competitive elections this year.

• Tens of millions spent on climate, conservation, and energy ads: From the presidential campaign to other federal races and state campaigns, voters saw positive climate and clean energy ads in Alaska, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, and more..
• Senate debates focused on climate: Senate candidates in Colorado, Georgia, and Arizona had robust climate and clean energy conversations during their state debates.
• Climate was a defining issue in key House races: U.S. House campaigns in states like Texas, Arizona, and California centered on climate action, with the candidates, media, and money focusing on a choice between one candidate running on climate, clean energy, and conservation and another with no plan to address the most pressing issue of our time, the climate crisis.

4. Voters are demanding bold, immediate climate action. This will be the first presidential election where climate voters play a decisive role in who heads to the White House. Climate was a top priority for key voting blocs sending a strong message that campaigning on bold climate action is good politics.

• Voters want climate action: Poll after poll shows voters are ready for leaders to take on the climate crisis and to invest in a clean energy future and the outcome of the election will prove that.
• Climate motivates youth, Latino, and suburban women: Climate is a critical motivator for key voting blocs including youth, Latino voters, and suburban women. A Climate Power 2020 poll showed that 77 percent of Latino voters support bold action on climate change, along with 76 percent of youth voters. When it comes to center-right white women, there is a 35 percent gain for Democrats when the choice is framed on climate change. And overall, 71 percent of voters favor bold climate action.
• Voters reject Trump’s toxic record and his climate attacks failed: Donald Trump was particularly vulnerable on the environment and climate action, and his corrupt record on climate change and the environment are a liability. Sixty-two percent of Republican-leaning persuadable voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the job Trump is doing on climate.

5. Climate politics played a key role in 2020: This year, climate played a key role in the elections — climate groups raised millions of dollars for Vice President Biden, and the movement united against Donald Trump’s toxic record and in support of Biden’s bold vision for an equitable clean energy future.

• Millions invested for pro-climate action candidates: LCV Victory Fund and other affiliated entities ran more than 100 TV ads and 25 million pieces of mail in the presidential, senate, and House races — spending more than $115 million. Environmental Defense Fund Action Fund spent $19 million in the 2020 election cycle.
• Climate movement united: Traditional environmental groups came together with youth activists, environmental justice leaders, and labor leaders in support of Vice President Biden’s bold climate action plan and against Trump’s toxic record. In key moments where Trump attempted to divide the left with lies about the Green New Deal and fracking, the movement stayed united to demand bold climate action.
• Political voices and media personalities joined the call for action: Key national political voices and media personalities joined the call for climate action and highlighted the critical importance of the politics of climate this year. Examples include Dan Pfeiffer, Stacey Abrams, Samantha Power, Senator Harry Reid, Ambassador Susan Rice, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, New York Times’ Dave Leonhardt, The Washington Post’s Margaret Sullivan, NBC’s Al Roker, and many more.
• Climate groups reached millions of voters: Climate groups reached millions of voters through phone calls, texts, mail, letters, and more. The Sierra Club engaged more than 35,000 volunteers to send 1.27 million handwritten letters, make more than 5 million phone calls, and sent 19 million texts. The Sunrise Movement contacted more than 1.95 million voters and scheduled nearly 14,000 volunteer shifts. LCV Victory Fund reached millions of voters through more than 10 million phone calls, 100,000 texts, and 25 million pieces of mail.