MEMO: The Energy Election: How Trump’s Broken Promise Is Shaping the Midterms

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Lori Lodes, President, Climate Power

DATE: October 27, 2026 

SUBJECT: The Energy Election: How Trump’s Broken Promise Is Shaping the Midterms

Two years ago, Trump and Republicans ran on a clear promise: they would cut energy costs in half, and cheaper energy would bring the price of everything else down. With one week before Election Day, voters are measuring that promise against reality: families are paying more to fill their tanks, heat their homes, and keep the lights on — and that’s driving the price of everything else up. This midterm is the energy election, and the gap between what Trump and Republicans promised versus what they actually delivered is shaping the closing arguments.

Families are paying for choices Trump and Republicans made. They took the country to war with Iran, driving up fuel costs even as they deliberately made us more dependent on oil. They cut support for clean energy just as America needed more power. They put oil and gas donors first while families struggled with their bills. 

Polling and campaign spending show how Republicans have lost voters’ trust on energy. Energy costs, specifically the cost of utilities and gas, are two of voters’ top-three most important voting issues ahead of the midterms. 

To win, Democrats are seizing the issue and making energy costs central to their campaigns. Whether power bills in Ohio, heating costs in Maine, or unregulated data centers from Texas to Michigan, Democrats are listening to voters’ top concerns and offering an answer: build more affordable clean power, improve the grid, and make data center companies pay their own costs.

Republicans went all in on a corrupt energy policy, and Democrats and voters will hold them accountable.

Trump and Republicans’ failed energy policy is costing families more. 

• Trump’s war in Iran, which Republicans in Congress have consistently rubber-stamped, is driving pain at the pump. Gas has stayed above $4 longer this year than ever before. America’s over-dependence on the global oil market has been exposed again.
• Trump and congressional Republicans’ policies have pushed diesel prices above $6 a gallon, driving up the costs of groceries and other consumer goods. 
• Trump and congressional Republicans’ budget bill canceled or stalled over 400 clean energy projects and supercharged virtually unregulated data center expansion — causing utility bills to rise by as much as 18% nationally in the past year.
• Some Republicans have quit in disgust. Senator Thom Tillis criticized the abrupt withdrawal of clean energy incentives and the disruption of planned power projects: ‘When you make dumb policy, the ads write themselves.’

Trump and Republicans put their donors ahead of families paying higher energy bills. 

• In 2024, Trump asked oil executives for $1 billion in support, promising policy wins even while pushing them to deliver campaign cash. Since taking office, he and congressional Republicans cut competing clean energy sources while providing $190B in tax breaks and other handouts for oil & gas in their budget bill. Then Trump started a war in Iran that has given oil and gas companies a 142% profit jump while families have paid more than $145 billion more for gas and diesel since the war began.
• Data center developers were also given $83 billion in tax breaks in Trump and Republicans’ budget bill, supercharging development without real guardrails.
• Trump has made as much as $21 million this year alone through investments in oil and gas companies, according to a recent analysis from Climate Power.

Voters blame Trump and Republicans for higher energy costs.

• Trump’s approval rating is at just 35%, as a majority of Americans blame him for the cost-of-living crisis driven by sky-high gas and utility prices. 
• Sixty-two percent of battleground district voters blame Trump for higher energy prices, and 54% say the same of Republicans in Congress. 
• Voters now trust Democrats to lower energy prices and improve energy policy in this election. Since the beginning of this year, Democrats have gained voters’ trust to lower utility bills (+15), lower the cost of gas and diesel (+5), and have a long-term plan to meet the country’s energy needs (+16).

Democrats are campaigning on lower bills and more clean power. 

• In Maine, Troy Jackson is connecting the Iran war to higher heating costs, and calling for investments in clean energy to protect families from the ‘boom and bust’ of oil markets. 
• In Ohio, Sherrod Brown is focusing on lowering utility bills and calling Jon Husted ‘the face of data centers.’ And in Texas, James Talarico is pushing for more clean energy projects saying he will ‘stand up to the other party if they mess with renewables.’ 
• Utility costs have become a ‘midterm weapon’, with more than $138 million spent in political ads about energy bills in the third quarter alone, the majority from Democrats.
• In the 2024 election cycle, 87% of ads mentioning gas prices in House and Senate races were run by Republicans. This year, 75% of ads mentioning gas prices have come from Democratic candidates or groups, according to AdImpact’s data.
• In the most competitive races, 32% of all recent Democratic ad spending went to ads mentioning energy affordability-related issues, while Republicans are at just 12%, according to AdImpact’s data.

The Bottom Line

Trump and Republicans will have to answer for the failure of their energy agenda, and the consequences will reach beyond this year’s election. Republicans blocked the path to cheaper, faster, homegrown clean energy and launched a war in Iran, and now families and businesses are paying for it three times over — at the pump, on their utility bills, and through the data centers polluting their communities and spiking their energy bills. Democrats have an opening to build lasting support for an agenda that delivers more affordable energy and makes corporations pay their fair share. The test will be whether they turn that promise into lower bills, reliable power, and cleaner air. By seizing the issue, Democrats are set to win in 2026 and beyond.